How close are we to herd immunity?

Posted on September 29, 2020October 16, 2020 by Tommy Madison

So, I get up this morning and go through my usual routine. I begin by looking into the COVID charts from around the country and the rest of the world. I typically resist looking at any of the “news” sites because I have learned that they are more interested in developing my perceptions than providing information. However, I am curious about any new antibody studies and hit google.

This article from Newsweek pops up.

My first thought is, wait, that can’t be right. From what I have read and been observing in the charts, we are absolutely making good progress towards herd immunity. And then I remember, oh yeah, Trump has some new guy who seems to like the herd immunity concept, so it has to be the worst thing in the world, and obviously will not work. The media will be obsessed with attacking the concept, thus the headline. Thanks, Trump, now we can’t have an honest conversation about herd immunity. But I am going to try anyway.

Let’s take a closer look at the results of the study. Here is the link to the study on Lancet if you want to read it yourself, but I will give you the highlights.

9.3% of the US Population had protective COVID antibodies by the end of July.
The percentage was highest in the Northeast (27.2%) and lower in the rest of the country.
9.2% of those who have antibodies were diagnosed with COVID.

We will begin by looking closer at that third number. 9.2% of individuals who have protective antibodies were diagnosed with COVID. Meaning, only 9.2% of people who were infected are confirmed cases. You see, confirmed cases are only a small percentage of overall infections. So, 90.8% of people who become infected with COVID do not get tested.

The 9.2% number is based upon research from Johns Hopkins but has been reinforced by studies around the world.

Now, if we want to determine the number of total COVID infections for an area, we have to determine what number we multiply the number of confirmed COVID cases by to get to 100% of total infections. Let’s do a little algebra.

9.2 (confirmed cases) * X = 100 (total infections)

X = 10.87

If you take the number of confirmed COVID cases and multiply it by 10.87, you will have a reasonable estimate of total COVID infections for a given area. And the number of total COVID infections indicates the number of people who have protective COVID antibodies after recovery.

For example:

New York had 415,767 confirmed cases of COVID at the end of July.
If you multiple that number of confirmed cases by 10.87 you would have the number of total infections in New York.
New York had 4,519,387 total COVID infections at the end of July.
The population of New York is round 19.44 million.
23% of New York residents were infected with COVID and had developed antibodies at the end of July.

The study found that 27.2% of individuals in the Northeast had antibodies. So, it is safe to assume that our method of determining the total number of infections is very accurate.

23% of New York residents having antibodies is outstanding news. Why? Because there is a good chance that New York reached a good herd immunity number by July. Let me show you a chart from Coronavirusbellcurve.com about the spread of infections in New York to highlight my point.

Were they still having new infections after July? Yes. But they seem to have reached a level that kept the spread to a minimum.

Now, I realize that the next thing everyone says is, “well yeah, that’s because they are locked down.” Or, “it’s because of masks or social distancing.” Well, read my previous article to understand why this is all a myth. It is the level of infected individuals that is the biggest brake on infection spread, not the mitigation efforts.

Here are a couple of other Northeast states.

See how the pattern continues? These states all had significant early outbreaks. But now, they are not having any significant outbreaks. They had enough infection spread early and now the people with protective antibodies are a brake on infection spread. As I say all the time, the only way to stop infection spread is to have infection spread. You just don’t want spread to the vulnerable populations.

Now, we get to the really good news. As we just discussed, the study revealed that 27.2% of those living in the Northeast had developed antibodies which is why they were not having significant outbreaks. But, the antibody numbers were much lower in the South, Midwest, and West.

However, keep in mind, this was at the end of July. Some of our more populated states in those other areas had significant outbreaks in August and September.

Here are a few visual examples to show you what I am saying.

These areas had their outbreaks after the study was completed. So, the number of people in those areas who had antibodies at the time of the study were lower. But that is no longer the case. Now, more areas have joined the Northeast in having a higher number of recovered people with antibody protection.

And keep in mind, these areas controlled infection by opening up and allowing infection, not by locking down. They allowed spread to control spread. Florida is completely open now and still not having any significant outbreaks.

The more areas that reach the threshold number of infections, the more people who will have protective antibodies, the more brake on infection spread we have, and the closer we are to the end of COVID.

Let’s pull this all together. With all those additional outbreaks taking place and subsiding in August and September, the total number of US confirmed cases is nearly twice as high as it was in July.

As of September 28^th, we stand at 7,013,825 confirmed cases of COVID in the United States. Using what we have learned about total infections, that number indicates there have been approximately 76,240,278 actual COVID infections in the United States. With the United States’ current population being around 330 million, approximately 23% of the US population probably has some level of protective antibodies.

Man, that is excellent news. 23% of the population with some level of protection is a good brake on infection spread. You can see that on the charts above regarding the northeast. We are nearing the threshold number of infections, no matter how many times they tell us it “remains out of reach.”

Of course, we are not out of the woods yet. There are still areas of the county that are more isolated or continue to delay opening up entirely. Plus, infections can come in from other countries. But even if they do, the ability for COVID to spread is being disrupted, which means we are closer to having this pain in the ass under control than we are from having significant outbreaks.

Remember, what made COVID so dangerous was that it was a NOVEL coronavirus. It WAS novel but is not now, and never will be again. The headline from Newsweek could not be any more wrong. We are coming ever closer to the herd immunity threshold, which is outstanding and uplifting news. The big question, do we get there before they try to make everyone take a vaccine?

There is one absolute. The media will continue to develop the perception of how terrible everything is.

States with mask mandates are twice as likely to be trending upwards in the number of new infections

Posted on August 12, 2020August 12, 2020 by Tommy Madison

There is a lot of controversy about whether or not wearing a mask helps reduce the number of infections. How about we look into how effective the masks have been?

In full disclosure, I am a supporter of mask-wearing. They are not the end-all and be-all, but I believe they do reduce the number of infections. However, there is undoubtedly some downside to wearing a mask.

In a recent article, I discussed a study by the CDC and the Navy that had some interesting results.

There is science on both sides of this discussion, and I am not going to wade into all of it. However, I have to admit frustration with the trust in mathematical models that continue to incorrectly predict this and that disaster. In this case, they predict things like 70,000 lives will be saved by everyone wearing masks. These models have proven inaccurate over and over, yet people use them to support their arguments.

As Mark Twain said, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. You can make these models say whatever you want by feeding in the information to get the desired result. If the data fed into the algorithm is flawed, the results will also be flawed. These models being flawed should be obvious by this point because of how many times they have been wrong.

So, instead of the mathematical model damn lies, we will use real statistical information to test the effectiveness of wearing masks.

Currently, in the United States, there are 19 states not mandating mask use. This group includes media punching bags Arizona and Florida, amongst others. That leaves 32 states (including DC) that are mandating mask use. Let’s look at what is happening in those two categories of states.

As of today, August 12^th, we will look at the number of states that are trending up or trending down in their daily number of new infections.

10.5% of the states without mask mandates (2 out of 19) are trending upwards in the number of new infections.
21.8% of the states with mask mandates (7 out of 32) are trending upwards in the number of new infections.

Yes, you are seeing that correctly, the data shows that states with mask mandates are twice as likely to be trending upwards in the number of new infections.

Am I saying that masks are useless? Of course not, I am very much pro mask when used correctly at the correct times. But the nonsense that the media is propagating is not accurate. They are trying to drive a hysteria instead of informing the public.

Look, remember a few weeks ago when the media was attacking states like Arizona and Florida repeatedly. Those states and their leaders were going to kill everyone, not only in their state but everywhere else. Why do you not hear so much about that now? Let’s take a closer look at how those states are doing.

Here is the chart of Florida and its progress against COVID.

And here is the chart of Arizona and their progress against COVID.

According to the media, their experts, and the models, Arizona and Florida Governors were trying to get people killed. But the results prove otherwise. Why is the media not touting their success at this point?

The bottom line is simple and increasingly obvious. It has gotten to the point where you can pretty much assume any assertion in the media regarding COVID is inaccurate and designed to exaggerate, not inform, especially when they back it up with some “model” or “expert” opinion, without any actual statistical reference. At what point do we wake up and realize that the media is not trying to inform us, they are trying to scare us.

Do you want to know why people do not believe everything reported about COVID, including the use of masks? Because they have been lied to over and over. You cannot trust the untrustworthy, and the media has proven to be untrustworthy.

I am pro mask. But with the ongoing media campaign about the need for masks, I am becoming more and more skeptical. I am pro mask, but I understand the science is not definitive, despite the depiction in the media.

If you want to know more about why we all need to be skeptical of the media, please read and share my book, the FEAR-19 Pandemic. It goes into detail about how the media led a campaign of deception early on in the pandemic to create a false perception. COVID is a terrible and deadly virus, but the COVID boogie man created in the media is just a mythical creature carefully created and continually cultivated to terrify the populace.

There are reviews and a free sample of the book on Amazon. Here is the most recent review.

#fear19 #covidphobia

Truth about COVID infection increase

Posted on June 28, 2020 by Tommy Madison

Let’s get straight to the point, the “record” number of COVID cases touted in the media has very little to do with the number of COVID infections. If you think those two things are the same, the media has brainwashed you.

If you read my book, The FEAR-19 Pandemic, then you already know what I mean. But I will do a quick review for everyone else. The number of “cases” is just the number of people who have tested positive and that number is generally a small percentage of the total infections. For example, here is a chart referencing antibody studies from all over the world. This chart shows the percentage of COVID infections in that area that were never “cases” of COVID.

The percentage of infected individuals that typically get tested is somewhere around 10%. That leaves 90% of infections that go unconfirmed. The reason that 90% did not get tested is that they were asymptomatic (not sick), or they had minor symptoms. They did not need to get tested. The number of “cases” is just a small percentage of the number of infections.

This information is why the “record” number of cases stat used by the media is just fear-mongering. It is a useless stat without context. If 90% of infections were going unconfirmed, all you have to do to increase the number of cases is to test more, which is precisely what is happening.

Let me show you a chart from coronavirusbellcurve.com.

It’s like they were initially counting all of the oak trees and then started counting the oak trees and the pine trees announcing that we have a “record” number of trees.

We are not having a record number of infections. However, there is most likely an increase in infections at this point. The best chart I have seen is from the same website, coronavirusbellcurve.com. This chart incorporates the rise in testing to adjust the numbers more accurately.

When adjusting for increased testing, you can still see an increase in infections, just not a record pace. The “record” number of cases is entirely fake news using artificially inflated stats.

However, there is one more critical point. The formula used for this chart incorporates the increase in testing that took place back on April 23^rd, and the amount of testing has increased even more. In the last nine days, there has been an average of 586,000 tests a day, which is yet another significant increase. They may need to make a new adjustment to their formula to ensure that the data is accurate.

Now, I will give you one more chart, which is the most important. This chart shows why they may need to adjust their formula. The number of daily deaths was following the trajectory of the adjusted case numbers until about a week ago, right when we again increased the amount of testing. Once again from coronavirusbellcurve.com, it is a great site if you want to look at numbers and charts.

The number of deaths continues to drop, and we are currently lower than we were back on April 1^st. Now, ask yourself. Why is the media touting a fake, manipulated number of “cases” instead of the fact that average deaths continue to decline? Any chance they want you to be scared? Any chance the media wants dramatic news more than an informed public?