Let’s do a little experiment about lockdowns.  This experiment will hopefully demonstrate how vital the lockdowns were, or were not, in fighting COVID. 

I am going to show you graphs with the “new cases” and “daily deaths” on 7-day rolling averages for two different states.  One of the states will be a lockdown state, and the other will be a non-lockdown state.

It is essential to point out that these are not just random, cherry-picked comparisons.  These states were chosen for these reasons.

  • The two states border each other.
  • The two states are within two of each other in the ranking of US States by population.
  • The two states are within two of each other in the ranking of US States by population density.
  • The largest cities in each of the states are of similar size.

The states share geographic location, population size, population density, and largest city size.  This combination of characteristics is about as solid a comparison as you can possibly make.  The only difference between the states is that one went on lockdown due to COVID, and the other didn’t.  Let’s compare.

This first chart is daily new cases of State A and State B.

The next chart is the daily deaths of State A and State B.

Now, guess whether State A or State B is the lockdown state.

Now, let’s do one more.  First, daily new cases for State C and State D.

And daily deaths for State C and State D.

Again, guess whether State C or State D is the lockdown state.  I will reveal the identities of the states in a few days.  

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