The CDC released their report on antibody testing from the USS Theodore Roosevelt.  You may remember the USS Theodore Roosevelt because it was the Navy ship whose captain was fired because of his reaction to the significant outbreak on his ship.

There were several fascinating findings from the study, and I am going to share a few.  Before sharing the results, let me remind you that there are two types of tests for COVID.  The first is for the virus itself and indicates current infection.  The second type of test is for antibodies to COVID.  The antibody test shows whether someone was previously infected with COVID and has developed antibodies.

Here are some of the interesting results.  First, out of the 382 individuals tested, 228 (60%) tested positive for antibodies.  By itself, that is a shocking number and shows how much COVID can spread, especially in high-density areas.

Since 228 sailors tested positive for antibodies, that leaves 154 (40%) who did not.  Of those 154, ten more individuals were positive for the virus at the time of the testing.  That identifies 238 individuals in the survey group who were currently or previously infected with COVID.

  • 382 individuals tested for COVID and COVID antibodies.
  • 228 tested positive for antibodies (60%).
  • 154 did not have antibodies (40%).
  • 10 out of those 154 did test positive for the COVID virus.
  • That makes 238 individuals who were currently infected, or previously infected out of 382 (62%)

This study presents a unique opportunity as it provides us with the perfect control group.  We can compare the infected individuals against non-infected individuals to allow us to clearly identify the differences between the two groups and learn a lot about COVID.

Of the 238 who tested positive for the COVID virus or antibodies, 44 individuals (18.5%) reported zero symptoms; they were asymptomatic.  One in five of infected individuals were asymptomatic.  What about the individuals who did not test positive for COVID or antibodies?  Out of those 144 individuals who were COVID negative, only 54 (38%) were asymptomatic.  Yes, 90 individuals (62%) who were not infected had symptoms.

This finding is a critical point because you cannot merely assign all of the reported symptoms to COVID, or why would the 90 uninfected individuals also report symptoms.

It may come as a shock to you, but COVID is not the only virus in the world.  There are a ton of other viruses circulating all the time that will cause many of the listed symptoms.  And there are also bacterial infections and medical conditions that can account for symptoms similar to COVID. 

If 62% of the control group (individuals who tested negative for COVID or antibodies) were symptomatic, then you can assume that 62% of the individuals who tested positive for COVID had symptoms because of other reasons as well.  This detail is why you use control groups in studies, to help determine which symptoms and what percentage of those symptoms are caused by something, in this case, COVID.

Let’s look at the results from the survey of reported symptoms.  I will show you the percentage of infected and non-infected individuals who reported specific symptoms and then the percentage difference.  This comparison will allow us to determine which symptoms, and the portion of symptoms, that are caused by COVID.

Now, if you add the 18.5% of infected individuals who were asymptomatic to the 62% of symptoms that could be the result of other things, you get to 80.5% of individuals who did not have a symptomatic reaction to COVID.

And this tracks perfectly with the 19.3% difference in seeking medical care between those infected and not infected.  About 20% of COVID infections will result in symptoms significant enough to seek out medical attention.

If you read my book, this tracks pretty well with the science I have already shown you.  Actually, this number is a little low.  In the book, we used antibody studies from all over the world to show that approximately 90% of COVID infected individuals were “not sick” enough to seek out medical care or get tested.  Here is the chart.

Did more people on the Navy ship access medical care?  Yes, probably because it is much easier to access readily accessible medical care.  Out in society, that number is much closer to 90% instead of 80% in this survey.

This information again reveals the lack of severity for COVID infections in comparison to what the media has promoted.  The 0.8% of infected individuals in the study who required hospitalization also indicates the low severity of COVID in this age group.

Over 80% did not require medical attention for COVID, and only 0.8% required hospitalization.

There is another data set from the report that is also extremely enlightening.  The participants filled out a survey about their prevention behaviors at the time of the testing.  Here is the same chart from above with those prevention behaviors comparing the percentage of infected versus not infected.

Hand washing, hand sanitizing, and cleaning of personal areas had little impact on the percentage chance of becoming infected.  Social distancing, isolation, and face coverings had a more significant effect.  But how much?

When compared to the control group, social distancing reduced the chances of becoming infected by 16.3%.   Avoiding common areas decreased the chances of becoming infected by 13.9%.  Avoiding common areas and social distancing is similar in effect to the lockdowns.  We all know that people were still out, but not out as much as usual, and they were social distancing with more regularity.

We can use this information to determine the overall impact of the lockdowns.  We can try to determine the percentage of infections avoided.  Let’s begin by determining that number based upon this study.

  • Social distancing decreases the chance of infection by 16.3%.
  • Avoiding common areas decreases the chance of infection by 13.9%

If you think about it, the individuals who socially distanced most likely avoided the common areas as well.  However, if we want to determine the effectiveness of the lockdowns, we can be as conservative as possible.  Plus, it is easier to avoid other people out in normal society than on a ship.

We will add both of those numbers together and speculate that the lockdowns (avoiding common areas and social distancing) reduced the chances of becoming infected by 30.2% (16.3 + 13.9).  So, it is reasonable to assume lockdowns decreased infections by approximately 30%.

However, infections are not the same thing as cases.  As the antibody studies from all over the world indicated (chart above), only about 10% of infected individuals would have been sick enough to seek out medical care and get tested.  That reduces the increase in cases from 30% to 3%.  Remember, the number of infections is not the same thing as the number of confirmed cases.

With about 2.1 million cases currently in the United States, that means that we reduced overall cases by 63 thousand cases.  Yes, we shut down the majority of the country for 63 thousand fewer cases of COVID.  Not deaths, but cases of COVID.  

I keep hearing how we saved millions of lives.  How?  By what science?  They keep telling us about these hypothetical mathematical models that predicted all these deaths. However, those models used flawed theories that were wrong at the time (read the book) and have repeatedly been proven wrong by emerging science. 

The media will keep reporting that information because it backs up everything they have been saying and promoting.  But it was all based upon fake statistics.  It is only philosophy, not science.  Yes, this study was a small sample size, but it is science none the less, not the flawed theories and fake statistics behind the models.

Millions of deaths in the United States without lockdowns?  Well, bless your hearts for trying to save everyone.

Source: CDC Study

 

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